Super Mario Bros movie weekend opening update


By Universal, Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=68810546


The weekend opening results for Nintendo's Super Mario Bros Movie are out. As I mentioned a few days ago, the critics' reviews were not good but the office numbers are very positive.

According to Axios, the weekend sales figures are:

Total 377 million

US domestic 204.6 million

International 173million

These are very good numbers as they have smashed (pun intended) Frozen 2's best weekend opening record for an animated film.

As this is a long weekend, we need to take note that the numbers might be more flattering that it seems.

Taking a shot in the dark

Just for fun, let's try to guess what the box office numbers will be for this movie. Please take note, I am not a media expert and this is just a fun exercise.

According to Box Office Mojo, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 earned:

US Domestic 190 million (47.1%)

International 214 million (52.9%)

Total 405 million

This means the opening weekend numbers are already very close to eclipsing the Sonic 2 numbers. However, we must remember that the movie released in 2022, when some Covid lockdown effects may still be felt.

It is hard to say how much the movie may earn once the theatre run ends but we can try to use the Sonic 2 numbers to extrapolate.

Sonic 2 earned 72 million in its opening weekend (US Domestic) and this is roughly 34% of the total US Domestic earned. This suggests total US Domestic for Super Mario may be around 551 million.

The Sonic 2 US Domestic and International numbers are roughly 50-50 split so the rough estimate for Super Mario is around 1,100 million, as a base case.

These are very very rough numbers and you should absolutely not rely upon them. There are many variables which can affect them and this is just a fun exercise.

Perhaps it is safer to say that this movie is a commercial success and I eagerly await Nintendo's next updates on their strategy and the final sales figures.

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