Some thoughts on my portfolio

We are approaching the end of 1st Quarter of 2026 and what a quarter it is. The year started with the abduction of Nicolás Maduro, threatened takeover of Greenland, and now a war between the US, Israel and Iran.

What happened

According to Wikipedia:

On 28 February 2026, a war began when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites and cities across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other Iranian officials. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases, and US-allied countries in the Middle East.

As of today, there are no signs that the war is abating. US troops are heading towards the warzone, notably the 11th and 31st Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU), as well as the 82nd Airborne.

For a good summary of what a MEU is and can do:

Right. Lots of speculation on this site all week about what the Marine Expeditionary Units headed towards the Persian Gulf might do, most of it pretty unhinged, so this thread is MEU 101. I'll keep adding to it as necessary.

— B. A. Friedman (@bafriedman.bsky.social) March 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM

This is not a blog about war, but (mostly) investing, so the key takeaway is that Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.

As the BBC explained, there are a number of reasons why this is a problem:

- Vital Gateway: It is the only sea passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean (Arabian Sea).

- Massive Oil Volume: Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through daily, accounting for roughly $600 billion in annual trade.

- Global LNG Source: It facilitates the transport of 20% of the world’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), primarily from Qatar and the UAE.

- Multi-National Reliance: It serves as the primary export route for Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

- Fertilizer Exports: Roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer trade passes through the strait, as Middle Eastern natural gas is a primary ingredient in production.

- Essential Imports: It is a "two-way street" used to bring food, medicine, and high-end technology into the Gulf nations.

Due to the fact that it is very narrow, Iran is able to threaten ships passing through, with relatively "low tech" weapons such as drones, missiles and speedboats.

As oil, natural gas and fertilizer are so important to every day lives, the shortage of these materials are causing problems in Asia, Africa, and even Europe.

Commodities analysts like Rory Johnston are worried and have warned about the potential impact on the rest of the world. 

So things can get really bad.

Stock Market

The stock market has been surprisingly buoyant, considering the potentially bleak scenarios that could happen.


The State Street SPDR MSCI All Country World UCITS ETF is down about 8.33% since the war started

Source: Financial Times Markets

This is a lot, but given the potentially dire scenarios, it is still a relatively muted reaction. Why is this?

It's hard to guess but one possibility is that the market is a forward looking machine. When the war is over, the economy will recover and things will go back to normal (line go up).

Add to this the risk of the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out), investors and traders are unlikely to be willing to take extreme positions, that the world is doomed. If they are positioned too heavily for downside risk, if the market shoots up, they will miss the boat.

TACO refers to the tendency of President Trump to backtrack or not follow through on his policy announcements, coined by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times. HE is, shall we say, keenly interested in the market's reaction as a barometer of his performance. We have seen evidence of his attempts to back off from the war, from The New York Times:

The problem here, that wasn't so apparent in previous events like Greenland, was that "the enemy gets a vote". Iran has not capitulated and have cast their vote in an open and emphatic manner and now there is a stalemate.

What I am doing

This is where we find ourselves today. There is a risk of sitting out the market, missing out market upside when we move closer to the end of the war, or being exposed to downside risk if things get even worse.

1) Remember the strategy

As someone who claims to invest based on long term fundamentals, it is important to remember the strategy. Stick to the plan, since we are looking forward 3, 5, 10 years, not 3, 5, 10 days. There is no need to respond knee-jerk to short term events, provided you think they are short-term events. 

In times like this, it is useful to remember the "Mr Market" analogy. Fundamental investing is trying to buy businesses for less than what they are worth. So that is what I will do everyday

2) Review my portfolio

The caveat to the 1st point is to double check if these are short term events. It is hard to predict the outcomes in the next day, week, month or year. However we can review the constituents of the portfolio and assess if they still belong in the portfolio.

If economic hardship is coming down the road, each day the war drags on, the likelihood and magnitude of the pain increases. This means companies will come under stress. Some fundamentals may have changed since I last purchased them. I want to hold stronger companies in times of stress, or I may want to hold more cash to manage risk. This is a good time to take advantage of the relatively calm market to spring clean.

And remember, the troubles as a result of the war could be a transient pain for some companies, it could be fundamental for others. Do your own diligence.

3) Zoom out and check your sources of information

It is very distracting to stay tuned to President Trump's every post, and it is arguably a waste of time. We know that he is keenly aware of the market impact of his announcements.

Measure kinda undermines itself If it's a good proxy, people will trade on it; its components (S&P, bonds) won't gyrate as much b/c investors anticipate taco & don't freak out. But then feedback loop that causes Trump to taco gets short-circuited, & he DOESN'T taco b/c no market freakout forced it

[image or embed]

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) March 27, 2026 at 1:15 AM

If his intention is to move the markets, then it undermines the purported objective of such announcements, which is to convey information.

In times of crisis, I check my information sources to make sure they are of high quality. Social media is full of opinions that might be a waste of time (such as this blog). One source I find very useful, are major news outlets like Bloomberg, Deutsche Welle, BBC.

The Bloomberg Oddlots podcast is a very useful source, providing information for me to assess the situation and asking good questions of experts who know their area well. I will attach a list of their episodes relating to the war at the end of this post.

4) DYODD

It is also vital to remember that I am responsible for my own portfolio, and nobody else. So this is a time to roll up my sleeves and get working. 

This is what everyone should do. This blog does not provide investment advice and it is free! So you should do your own diligence as well!

Final thoughts

I think it is important to remember, that throughout all of this, people are suffering and it is ghoulish to view this through the lens of just making money. We all want to get rich, but not like this. I will attach a couple of videos that I find useful to remind us to be human through this difficult period.

List of videos

The war from the Israeli perspective

The war from the Iranian perspective

Oddlots:

Rory Johnston on the impact on oil

Alexis Maxwell and the impact of fertiliser 

Bob Brackett on natural gas

Ozan Tarman on how big investors are reacting to the markets

The information provided on this finance blog is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. It is not tailored to the specific needs of any individual reader. Investing in securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should always conduct thorough research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Any reliance you place on the information provided is strictly at your own risk. I will not be liable for any losses or damages that may arise from your use of the information provided on this blog.

Please note that I may hold positions in the stocks or securities mentioned on this blog. While I strive to provide objective and unbiased information, it is important to be aware of this potential conflict of interest.

Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.